Bluntly Conservative Race for Missouri GOP Seat By Andrew Norman, Published by CQ

Bluntly Conservative Race for Missouri GOP Seat By Andrew Norman, CQ Staff Original http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003193560 Decisions by House incumbents to retire or run for other offices will give Republican Party strategists some headaches in 2010. But the seat in Missouri's overwhelming Republican 7th District should not be one of them. It is virtually certain that a Republican will succeed seven-term GOP Rep. Roy Blunt , who has left the seat open to compete for the Senate seat of retiring Republican Christopher S. Bond . The 7th District, located in Missouri's southwest corner, shares the conservative political orientation of the states that it abuts: Oklahoma, Kansas and Arkansas. Blunt, a former House Republican whip, ran up 68 percent of the vote in 2008 and 67 percent in 2006, even as his party was enduring major setbacks nationally. And the 7th District's 63 percent to 35 percent vote in favor of John McCain was crucial to the razor-thin statewide victory for the 2008 Republican presidential nominee over Democratic opponent Barack Obama . This partisan disparity is underscored by the early candidate lineup for the August 2010 7th District primary. Five Republicans already have stepped forward to run for their party's nomination, while the Democrats haven't yet fielded one candidate. The GOP lineup includes a pair of state senators, Jack Goodman and Gary Nodler; Darrell Moore, the Greene County prosecutor, whose home base includes Springfield, the 7th District's population center; Billy Long, an auctioneer and longtime Missouri radio personality; and Jeff Wisdom, a college instructor, Iraq War veteran and conservative activist. And the outlook for the contest will not be settled until former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman clarifies her political plans for 2010. Steelman is contemplating a possible comeback attempt after she lost a competitive race for the 2008 Republican nomination for governor to then-Rep. Kenny Hulshof, who in turn lost the general election to Democrat Jay Nixon . And she has been mulling the possibility of trying to succeed Blunt in the 7th District seat — or running against him for the Republican Senate nomination. Although state political experts tend to regard Goodman and Nodler as the early front-runners for the Republican nomination, the candidates' mid-year campaign finance reports drew attention to Long. His fundraising of about $347,000 through June 30, which included a $100,000 personal investment he made in his own campaign, was the second-highest total raised nationally by any candidate seeking an open House seat. "People scoffed at Billy Long when he announced when he was going to run, and they're not scoffing now," said George Connor, chairman of the political science department at Missouri State University in Springfield. Connor has followed southwest Missouri politics for almost 20 years. Long out-raised both Goodman, who had $184,000 in receipts as of June 30, and Nodler, who tallied nearly $102,000. Moore, who started his campaign later, will be playing catch-up in the money chase, as will Wisdom, who was overseas on a Navy Reserve training mission for much of August. Though Wisdom is known among members of the populist "tea party" movement, he will be competing on the same strongly conservative turf as most of the Republican field. This is a district where some voters have viewed Blunt — who sides with most Republican colleagues on nearly all House votes — as a bit squishy ideologically. The candidates are "falling all over each other" trying to be more conservative than their opponents, said Connor, who added, "They're not going to be able to say I'm more pro-life than you or I'm more opposed to the health care plan than you are. I think they're going to be on the exact same page." That could provide an opening for Moore — the nearest to a moderate in this group — provided there is enough of a center-right constituency in the 7th District Republican primary. Moore states a preference for seeking common ground politically and favored a proposal for a bipartisan commission to make recommendations on amending the nation's health care system. Goodman. Nodler and Long all can build upon name recognition that they enjoy in a variety of the district's geographic areas, Connor said. Goodman is considered by many local politics watchers as the candidate of the Republican establishment. He served two terms in the state House before being elected in 2005 to the state Senate, where he serves as assistant majority floor leader. Goodman is based in Mount Vernon, located in Lawrence County. He gained some recognition across the district when he opposed the "village law," a measure which made it easier for landowners to incorporate their properties as villages, that was repealed in August 2008. Click here for free trial! Nodler's strength is in a western part of the district that includes Joplin, the district's second-largest city. He was a political novice when he entered the open-seat 7th District primary in 1996 and lost to Blunt by 11 percentage points. But he rebounded by winning a state Senate seat in 2002 and now chairs the chamber's appropriations committee. Long has never run for office before, but hopes to offset that with the districtwide recognition he developed with the AM morning radio show he hosted three hours a day, five days a week for seven years (on the same local station that carries conservative talk stars Rush Limbaugh and Dr. Laura Schlessinger). "I think you're going to see a lot of people voting for the guy that hasn't been there, done that, that hasn't spent his career in politics," said Long, who has pledged to limit himself to no more than three House terms. Long will be hard for opponents to outflank on the right, calling himself "100 percent pro-life" on abortion and warning of a governmental creep toward "socialism." He says he fashions himself as "a poor-man's cross" between Paul Harvey, the longtime purveyor of a home-spun form of heartland commentary who died in March at age 90, and Limbaugh, the leading firebrand of conservative talk radio. But Goodman has already shown that he will not allow Long's claims of outsider superiority go uncontested. He took a veiled shot at Long during a mid-August event in the district, saying he wouldn't need a staffer's help interpreting the meaning of a legislative bill. http://MissouriNetizen.com http://www.bransonedge.com http://bransonmissouri.missourinetizen.com